XRP ETF Approval Odds Will It Get Approved? (2026)
What are the chances an XRP ETF gets approved in 2026? Filing status, SEC posture, and comparison to Bitcoin/Ethereum ETF timelines.
Bloomberg: 65-80% probability in 2026. Multiple filings, SEC posture shifted post-settlement, BTC/ETH precedents cleared the path.
| Key facts | |
|---|---|
| Odds | 65-80% |
| Filings | 5+ |
| SEC | Favorable |
| BTC ETF | Jan 2024 |
| ETH ETF | May 2024 |
| Risk | Delay |
Approval Probability
| Factor | Impact | Dir |
|---|---|---|
| BTC/ETH Precedent | Strong + | ↑ |
| Settlement | Legal cleared | ↑ |
| Filers | Demand shown | ↑ |
| New SEC Chair | Pro-crypto | ↑ |
| Political | Uncertainty | ↓ |
| Delays | Extensions | ↓ |
Filings
Grayscale
Trust → ETF. Largest AUM.
21Shares
S-1 filed.
Bitwise
Strong institutional.
Franklin Templeton
Major TradFi.
Full tracker: ETF filings.
SEC Shift
XRP has judicial clarity that secondary sales ≠ securities. Unlike SOL and others.
Precedents
| ETF | Filed | Approved | Time |
|---|---|---|---|
| BTC | 2013 | Jan 2024 | ~10yr |
| ETH | 2023 | May 2024 | ~1yr |
| XRP | 2024 | Pending | TBD |
Price impact: analysis.
Timeline
S-1 Review
SEC reviews registration.
19b-4
240-day clock starts.
Comments
30-60 day public period.
Decision
Approve or deny.
Frequently Asked Questions
Approved in 2026?
65-80% probability per Bloomberg.
Who filed?
Grayscale, 21Shares, Bitwise, Franklin Templeton, Canary.
Price impact?
BTC rose ~60%. XRP smaller cap = potentially bigger %.
Settlement helps?
Yes. Key legal hurdle cleared.
What could delay?
Political, legal, timeline extensions.
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Last updated: February 15, 2026. Written by the AllAboutXRP Editorial Team.
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